Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5277 PHL 08:56 → MEM 10:45 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AA 5266 PHL 15:23 → MEM 17:08 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5277 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:56	MEM 10:45	17%	4%	0.8%	74%
AA 5415 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:05	MEM 21:00	20%	8%	1.1%	66%
AA 5266 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 15:23	MEM 17:08	21%	7%	0.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON