Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1252 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 1252 PHL 06:00 → MIA 08:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1203 PHL 17:25 → MIA 20:26 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1252 American Flight history →	PHL 06:00	MIA 08:56	10%	2%	1.4%	89%
AA 2184 American Flight history →	PHL 08:15	MIA 11:12	15%	3%	1.5%	91%
AA 796 American Flight history →	PHL 10:00	MIA 12:59	21%	5%	2.6%	70%
AA 1181 American Flight history →	PHL 19:55	MIA 23:09	26%	9%	1.7%	69%
AA 3302 American Flight history →	PHL 11:30	MIA 14:29	26%	8%	2.2%	76%
AA 2936 American Flight history →	PHL 21:55	MIA 00:52	28%	8%	1.9%	61%
AA 3265 American Flight history →	PHL 14:26	MIA 17:27	28%	10%	1.7%	67%
AA 3306 American Flight history →	PHL 16:25	MIA 19:27	31%	10%	2.0%	75%
AA 2111 American Flight history →	PHL 18:35	MIA 21:38	31%	10%	1.7%	63%
F9 1203 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:25	MIA 20:26	48%	17%	3.0%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON