Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5018 PHL 11:00 → MKE 12:22 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 710 PHL 15:59 → MKE 17:17 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5018 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 11:00	MKE 12:22	15%	7%	1.5%	72%
AA 5483 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 22:25	MKE 23:44	17%	11%	2.1%	68%
AA 710 American Flight history →	PHL 15:59	MKE 17:17	25%	9%	1.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON