Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5310 at 10:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 5310 PHL 10:30 → MSN 12:06 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 5512 PHL 20:04 → MSN 21:41 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5310 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:30	MSN 12:06	12%	5%	1.2%	79%
AA 5532 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 15:49	MSN 17:22	20%	10%	1.4%	67%
AA 5512 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:04	MSN 21:41	24%	11%	1.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON