Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2791 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2791 PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2594 PHL 18:57 → MSP 20:53 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2791 Delta Flight history →	PHL 05:40	MSP 07:20	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 5658 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:40	MSP 12:38	12%	4%	1.0%	88%
DL 2688 Delta Flight history →	PHL 11:36	MSP 13:21	12%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 2157 American Flight history →	PHL 13:37	MSP 15:34	15%	5%	0.6%	77%
DL 2679 Delta Flight history →	PHL 15:38	MSP 17:37	17%	5%	0.6%	82%
AA 5460 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:49	MSP 22:01	19%	7%	1.5%	70%
DL 2594 Delta Flight history →	PHL 18:57	MSP 20:53	22%	6%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON