Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 942 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 942 PHL 08:50 → MSY 10:55 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest F9 4781 PHL 17:15 → MSY 19:19 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 942 American Flight history →	PHL 08:50	MSY 10:55	14%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 2061 American Flight history →	PHL 13:57	MSY 16:02	18%	7%	1.1%	75%
AA 5454 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:44	MSY 22:10	23%	10%	5.8%	58%
F9 4781 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:15	MSY 19:19	30%	14%	2.9%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	54m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	4h 32m	90%	81%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	55m Atlanta	ATL 17:35 → MSY 18:07DL 3132	4h 35m	88%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON