Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Omaha on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5559 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:45	OMA 12:55	17%	5%	0.8%	71%
AA 5545 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 18:07	OMA 20:23	22%	8%	1.0%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	5h 32m	98%	90%
Southwest Details →	PHL 05:00 → DEN 07:00WN 2664	2h 55m Denver	DEN 09:55 → OMA 12:30WN 748	8h 30m	100%	89%
American Details →	PHL 05:15 → ORD 06:38AA 1652	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → OMA 11:18AA 3739 · flown by Envoy	7h 03m	98%	89%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → OMA 10:27UA 1778	5h 27m	98%	88%
United Details →	PHL 06:15 → IAH 08:44UA 584	3h 11m Houston	IAH 11:55 → OMA 14:11UA 6188 · flown by Mesa	8h 56m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125	7h 20m	99%	88%
American Details →	PHL 10:35 → ORD 12:09AA 1041	3h 57m Chicago	ORD 16:06 → OMA 17:56AA 4724 · flown by Republic	8h 21m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	51m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → OMA 09:28DL 2632	5h 13m	95%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHL 19:00 → ORD 20:33UA 2797	57m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → OMA 23:14UA 1625	5h 14m	74%	62%
Delta Details →	PHL 15:38 → MSP 17:37DL 2679	48m Minneapolis	MSP 18:25 → OMA 19:47DL 4024 · flown by SkyWest	5h 09m	71%	60%
American Details →	PHL 16:17 → PHX 18:24AA 2927	50m Phoenix	PHX 19:14 → OMA 23:58AA 6420 · flown by SkyWest	8h 41m	67%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON