Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 660 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 660 PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 2111 PHL 18:11 → ORD 19:53 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 660 United Flight history →	PHL 06:00	ORD 07:30	5%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 1652 American Flight history →	PHL 05:15	ORD 06:38	6%	3%	1.1%	83%
UA 1811 United Flight history →	PHL 08:05	ORD 09:34	9%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 2095 American Flight history →	PHL 08:58	ORD 10:38	10%	4%	1.1%	81%
AA 1041 American Flight history →	PHL 10:35	ORD 12:09	11%	5%	1.1%	82%
AA 3074 American Flight history →	PHL 07:42	ORD 09:10	11%	4%	1.1%	82%
UA 2207 United Flight history →	PHL 11:38	ORD 13:06	12%	4%	0.6%	81%
AA 2840 American Flight history →	PHL 23:03	ORD 00:29	13%	5%	1.3%	67%
UA 2784 United Flight history →	PHL 13:31	ORD 14:55	14%	5%	0.7%	76%
AA 3042 American Flight history →	PHL 21:32	ORD 23:30	14%	6%	1.3%	63%
AA 2925 American Flight history →	PHL 12:42	ORD 14:15	14%	6%	1.1%	79%
AA 470 American Flight history →	PHL 15:45	ORD 17:29	20%	7%	1.2%	64%
UA 2797 United Flight history →	PHL 19:00	ORD 20:33	22%	6%	0.7%	48%
UA 308 United Flight history →	PHL 17:00	ORD 18:33	22%	6%	0.6%	63%
AA 1012 American Flight history →	PHL 17:40	ORD 19:26	26%	8%	1.4%	58%
F9 2111 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 18:11	ORD 19:53	39%	13%	2.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON