Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4749 at 15:32 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4749 PHL 15:32 → ORF 16:52 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 5335 PHL 17:50 → ORF 19:10 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4749 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 15:32	ORF 16:52	12%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 5632 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:50	ORF 21:23	21%	10%	1.6%	72%
AA 5335 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 17:50	ORF 19:10	29%	10%	1.5%	66%
AA 6122 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 09:07	ORF 10:29	16%	2%	0.0%	84%
AA 5859 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 13:48	ORF 15:06	26%	9%	2.8%	74%
AA 6121 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 10:38	ORF 12:00	28%	10%	2.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON