Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2271 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2271 PHL 08:45 → PBI 11:33 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest F9 2499 PHL 16:34 → PBI 19:25 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2271 American Flight history →	PHL 08:45	PBI 11:33	17%	4%	1.7%	84%
AA 2280 American Flight history →	PHL 12:24	PBI 15:13	23%	9%	7.7%	69%
AA 3145 American Flight history →	PHL 19:50	PBI 22:40	31%	10%	2.0%	68%
F9 2499 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 16:34	PBI 19:25	38%	17%	5.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON