Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3090 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3090 PHL 08:20 → PDX 11:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 1787 PHL 17:46 → PDX 20:37 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3090 American Flight history →	PHL 08:20	PDX 11:33	11%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 1483 American Flight history →	PHL 20:12	PDX 23:30	19%	6%	1.0%	71%
AS 1787 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 17:46	PDX 20:37	23%	6%	0.8%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → PDX 10:41DL 2415	8h 01m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27DL 539	8h 12m	97%	88%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → PDX 11:38UA 1994	8h 38m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON