Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5485 PHL 11:00 → PIT 12:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest AA 5320 PHL 22:34 → PIT 23:56 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5485 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 11:00	PIT 12:25	13%	4%	0.8%	61%
AA 2312 American Flight history →	PHL 15:04	PIT 16:25	18%	7%	0.7%	68%
AA 347 American Flight history →	PHL 19:24	PIT 21:00	19%	6%	0.7%	77%
AA 5320 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 22:34	PIT 23:56	20%	6%	1.3%	68%
AA 6092 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 17:40	PIT 19:12	31%	11%	9.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON