Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Pensacola on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5469 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 09:04	PNS 10:53	18%	6%	0.8%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	46m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → PNS 08:17DL 3103	4h 02m	94%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	5h 26m	99%	86%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	3h 29m Charlotte	CLT 11:22 → PNS 12:17AA 5349 · flown by PSA	7h 17m	100%	85%
American Details →	PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 11:57 → PNS 14:24AA 4023 · flown by Envoy	7h 42m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	5h 33m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	5h 55m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 01m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021	6h 32m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 11:30 → MIA 14:29AA 3302	1h 02m Miami	MIA 15:31 → PNS 16:34AA 3749 · flown by Envoy	6h 04m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON