Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1846 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 1846 PHL 08:20 → RDU 09:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1517 PHL 17:18 → RDU 18:51 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1846 American Flight history →	PHL 08:20	RDU 09:56	10%	3%	0.9%	93%
F9 2059 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:20	RDU 08:48	13%	8%	1.3%	85%
AA 2403 American Flight history →	PHL 10:52	RDU 12:25	14%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 5644 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 13:05	RDU 14:44	20%	10%	1.1%	70%
AA 3125 American Flight history →	PHL 22:00	RDU 23:34	22%	8%	0.9%	65%
AA 2360 American Flight history →	PHL 15:06	RDU 16:42	23%	8%	0.8%	55%
AA 706 American Flight history →	PHL 20:15	RDU 21:51	27%	9%	0.9%	65%
AA 5590 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 17:30	RDU 19:11	32%	12%	1.5%	62%
F9 1517 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:18	RDU 18:51	34%	14%	1.5%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON