Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5843 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 13:12	RIC 14:35	11%	2%	0.0%	89%
AA 5894 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 09:05	RIC 10:29	23%	13%	0.0%	77%
AA 5895 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 15:40	RIC 17:03	29%	11%	2.8%	71%
AA 5964 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 20:31	RIC 21:56	32%	17%	4.2%	68%
AA 5969 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 18:30	RIC 19:57	36%	29%	1.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON