Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2445 PHL 08:28 → RSW 11:22 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2571 PHL 20:00 → RSW 22:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2445 American Flight history →	PHL 08:28	RSW 11:22	20%	5%	16.6%	87%
AA 2439 American Flight history →	PHL 11:00	RSW 13:55	21%	9%	15.2%	68%
AA 2571 American Flight history →	PHL 20:00	RSW 22:57	28%	9%	11.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON