Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1621 at 08:39 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1621 PHL 08:39 → SAN 11:20 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1333 PHL 18:00 → SAN 20:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1621 American Flight history →	PHL 08:39	SAN 11:20	18%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 1489 American Flight history →	PHL 15:40	SAN 18:22	26%	8%	0.8%	80%
AA 1333 American Flight history →	PHL 18:00	SAN 20:50	32%	8%	0.8%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	7h 58m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	PHL 05:00 → DEN 07:00WN 2664	1h 15m Denver	DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699	7h 40m	100%	85%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660	8h 21m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON