tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Dulles, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2489 American Flight history → PHL 10:30 SAT 13:30 16% 5% 0.7% 84%
AA 3301 American Flight history → PHL 17:45 SAT 20:46 23% 9% 0.8% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:10 → IAD 07:19UA 3693 · flown by Republic 1h 06m Dulles IAD 08:25 → SAT 10:59UA 1789 5h 49m 96% 90%
SouthwestDetails → PHL 05:00 → DEN 07:00WN 2664 2h 20m Denver DEN 09:20 → SAT 12:25WN 3149 8h 25m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 1h 40m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 7h 09m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43DL 1676 5h 28m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 40m Chicago ORD 09:10 → SAT 12:12UA 490 7h 12m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → PHL 08:00 → MDW 09:05WN 4202 1h 30m Chicago MDW 10:35 → SAT 13:15WN 2570 6h 15m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 8h 13m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHL 08:00 → DEN 10:01UA 2307 3h 43m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 9h 55m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03AA 546 5h 41m 69% 45%
SouthwestDetails → PHL 16:45 → DEN 18:50WN 3221 1h 00m Denver DEN 19:50 → SAT 23:10WN 2073 7h 25m 66% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON