Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5621 PHL 08:25 → SAV 10:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2504 PHL 15:38 → SAV 17:51 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5621 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:25	SAV 10:39	10%	3%	1.2%	87%
AA 5273 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:00	SAV 22:27	16%	7%	1.8%	78%
AA 2504 American Flight history →	PHL 15:38	SAV 17:51	17%	7%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON