Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2092 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2092 PHL 07:05 → SEA 10:01 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 2522 PHL 18:21 → SEA 21:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2092 Delta Flight history →	PHL 07:05	SEA 10:01	12%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 2534 American Flight history →	PHL 08:35	SEA 11:40	15%	4%	0.7%	80%
AS 277 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 07:33	SEA 10:32	20%	4%	0.7%	79%
AA 3259 American Flight history →	PHL 19:35	SEA 22:56	26%	8%	0.8%	72%
AS 443 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 16:26	SEA 19:30	29%	7%	0.8%	66%
AA 2522 American Flight history →	PHL 18:21	SEA 21:35	30%	8%	0.9%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHL 06:10 → IAD 07:19UA 3693 · flown by Republic	1h 41m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → SEA 11:51UA 2101	8h 41m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	8h 19m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	8h 48m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON