Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2661 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 2661 PHL 06:00 → SFO 08:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2663 PHL 17:35 → SFO 20:47 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2661 United Flight history →	PHL 06:00	SFO 08:58	7%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 267 United Flight history →	PHL 09:25	SFO 12:34	18%	6%	0.6%	51%
AA 1524 American Flight history →	PHL 08:28	SFO 11:29	19%	8%	0.7%	82%
AA 3295 American Flight history →	PHL 21:50	SFO 00:59	24%	8%	0.8%	81%
AA 2045 American Flight history →	PHL 16:30	SFO 19:42	25%	10%	0.7%	64%
AA 3166 American Flight history →	PHL 19:46	SFO 23:10	25%	8%	0.8%	57%
UA 1575 United Flight history →	PHL 18:23	SFO 21:33	26%	9%	0.6%	59%
AA 2663 American Flight history →	PHL 17:35	SFO 20:47	35%	12%	0.7%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHL 06:10 → IAD 07:19UA 3693 · flown by Republic	1h 16m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 09m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	8h 05m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	2h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 52m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON