Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 903 at 09:28 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 903 PHL 09:28 → SJU 13:33 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest F9 4462 PHL 20:03 → SJU 23:58 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 903 American Flight history →	PHL 09:28	SJU 13:33	17%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 3065 American Flight history →	PHL 18:50	SJU 22:57	23%	8%	0.9%	62%
B6 1047 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 12:44	SJU 16:36	26%	10%	0.8%	73%
F9 1166 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 11:55	SJU 15:57	38%	11%	1.0%	43%
F9 1726 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 22:59	SJU 02:59	39%	14%	1.5%	59%
F9 4462 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 20:03	SJU 23:58	43%	14%	1.4%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON