Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 2700 at 08:48, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2700 American Flight history →	PHL 08:48	SRQ 11:43	20%	5%	18.0%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	58m Atlanta	ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196	4h 37m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	5h 19m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → SRQ 14:13DL 2438	6h 08m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	7h 28m	96%	69%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	3h 40m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	9h 12m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	6h 37m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 17:15 → SRQ 18:53DL 3115	6h 51m	99%	68%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 08:59 → SRQ 10:50AA 2693	4h 50m	95%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON