Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2807 at 07:32 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2807 PHL 07:32 → TPA 10:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2269 PHL 18:33 → TPA 21:25 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2807 American Flight history →	PHL 07:32	TPA 10:19	10%	3%	17.2%	94%
AA 2822 American Flight history →	PHL 08:53	TPA 11:40	14%	4%	17.2%	83%
AA 2838 American Flight history →	PHL 12:55	TPA 15:37	17%	7%	17.2%	69%
F9 4807 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:55	TPA 10:39	19%	8%	17.4%	75%
AA 2900 American Flight history →	PHL 14:26	TPA 17:11	22%	7%	17.2%	64%
AA 2322 American Flight history →	PHL 17:57	TPA 20:39	33%	9%	17.2%	62%
F9 2269 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 18:33	TPA 21:25	41%	13%	17.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON