Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5480 at 10:30, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5480 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:30	TVC 12:47	13%	5%	1.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	7h 14m	99%	86%
American Details →	PHL 07:18 → BOS 08:43AA 3225	1h 27m Boston	BOS 10:10 → TVC 12:41AA 4516 · flown by Republic	5h 23m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:30 → BOS 10:58DL 5845 · flown by Republic	3h 08m Boston	BOS 14:06 → TVC 16:39DL 5821 · flown by Republic	7h 09m	100%	85%
American Details →	PHL 05:15 → ORD 06:38AA 1652	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 09:35 → TVC 11:57AA 4190 · flown by Envoy	6h 42m	99%	84%
American Details →	PHL 08:58 → ORD 10:38AA 2095	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → TVC 16:17AA 3772 · flown by Envoy	7h 19m	98%	80%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	1h 17m Charlotte	CLT 09:10 → TVC 11:39AA 5433 · flown by PSA	5h 39m	98%	80%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → TVC 13:13UA 2807	7h 13m	100%	79%
American Details →	PHL 08:20 → CLT 10:18AA 1494	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → TVC 15:31AA 5628 · flown by PSA	7h 11m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHL 19:00 → ORD 20:33UA 2797	52m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic	4h 54m	69%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON