tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5543 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 10:28 XNA 12:31 12% 5% 1.0% 80%
AA 1872 American Flight history → PHL 18:21 XNA 20:45 22% 8% 1.0% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → XNA 11:08DL 3536 · flown by SkyWest 6h 28m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → PHL 05:00 → DFW 07:35AA 1670 1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:04 → XNA 10:24AA 3838 · flown by Envoy 6h 24m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 10m Chicago ORD 08:40 → XNA 10:39UA 5407 · flown by SkyWest 5h 39m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 3h 51m Charlotte CLT 11:44 → XNA 13:12AA 5444 · flown by PSA 8h 12m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → PHL 07:09 → DFW 09:50AA 2964 2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:36 → XNA 13:57AA 3847 · flown by Envoy 7h 48m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356 3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → XNA 23:47AA 3693 · flown by Envoy 8h 25m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074 2h 35m Chicago ORD 11:45 → XNA 13:41AA 3848 · flown by Envoy 6h 59m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → PHL 08:20 → DFW 11:03AA 1692 3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy 8h 07m 96% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:57 → XNA 21:20AA 4101 · flown by Envoy 5h 58m 72% 60%
UnitedDetails → PHL 19:00 → ORD 20:33UA 2797 57m Chicago ORD 21:30 → XNA 23:31UA 5767 · flown by SkyWest 5h 31m 74% 60%
AmericanDetails → PHL 17:38 → DFW 20:25AA 2947 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:19 → XNA 22:37AA 3059 5h 59m 66% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON