Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3228 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 3228 PHX 07:45 → ABQ 10:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 1050 PHX 18:55 → ABQ 21:05 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3228 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:45	ABQ 10:00	5%	1%	0.5%	92%
AA 1348 American Flight history →	PHX 08:35	ABQ 10:56	10%	3%	0.6%	96%
WN 106 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:15	ABQ 12:30	11%	3%	0.5%	89%
AA 3159 American Flight history →	PHX 21:46	ABQ 23:59	28%	9%	1.3%	68%
AA 1351 American Flight history →	PHX 16:16	ABQ 18:28	29%	11%	0.8%	63%
WN 882 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:50	ABQ 18:05	37%	12%	0.6%	46%
WN 3485 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:40	ABQ 23:55	37%	14%	0.9%	70%
WN 2863 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:55	ABQ 01:10	38%	12%	1.0%	54%
WN 1050 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:55	ABQ 21:05	43%	15%	0.6%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON