tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Portland, leaving 14:04, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1981 American Flight history → PHX 19:18 ANC 23:59 27% 9% 0.8% 59%
AS 1532 Alaska Flight history → PHX 18:32 ANC 23:21 27% 6% 0.7% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:20 → ANC 18:41UA 2369 13h 31m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 28m Denver DEN 11:20 → ANC 14:53UA 280 9h 53m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:16 → SFO 15:19UA 1427 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 18:47 → ANC 22:40UA 1594 10h 24m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274 3h 13m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 12h 08m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:12 → SFO 13:15UA 2619 3h 35m San Francisco SFO 16:50 → ANC 20:49UA 1656 10h 37m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356 3h 42m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 14h 04m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 3h 35m Denver DEN 15:35 → ANC 19:12UA 1592 11h 04m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:50 → IAD 16:17UA 1873 1h 26m Dulles IAD 17:43 → ANC 21:21UA 2073 13h 31m 95% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:15 → ORD 16:12AA 2252 47m Chicago ORD 16:59 → ANC 20:51AA 1354 11h 36m 69% 52%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 14:37 → SEA 17:43AS 425 1h 03m Seattle SEA 18:46 → ANC 21:25AS 661 7h 48m 72% 49%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 18:53 → SEA 22:00AS 611 59m Seattle SEA 22:59 → ANC 01:37 +1AS 669 7h 44m 64% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON