Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 918 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 918 PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 2608 PHX 23:23 → ATL 06:29 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 918 Delta Flight history →	PHX 05:45	ATL 12:28	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 901 Delta Flight history →	PHX 07:15	ATL 14:00	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 348 Delta Flight history →	PHX 10:14	ATL 17:00	14%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:15	ATL 20:14	17%	5%	0.6%	81%
DL 929 Delta Flight history →	PHX 23:50	ATL 06:29	17%	4%	0.9%	86%
DL 386 Delta Flight history →	PHX 15:00	ATL 21:59	19%	5%	0.6%	75%
AA 1373 American Flight history →	PHX 09:06	ATL 15:55	22%	6%	0.6%	59%
WN 3232 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:15	ATL 20:55	28%	8%	0.5%	69%
AA 2391 American Flight history →	PHX 16:11	ATL 22:50	29%	12%	0.6%	71%
F9 2608 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 23:23	ATL 06:29	32%	16%	1.4%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON