Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4548 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 4548 PHX 05:30 → AUS 09:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 3208 PHX 17:25 → AUS 21:40 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4548 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:30	AUS 09:45	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 4744 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:25	AUS 12:45	11%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 1394 American Flight history →	PHX 08:41	AUS 13:09	13%	4%	0.7%	87%
DL 3747 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 09:40	AUS 14:15	17%	7%	0.6%	80%
WN 3234 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:35	AUS 15:50	25%	5%	0.6%	38%
AA 2892 American Flight history →	PHX 15:25	AUS 19:43	27%	10%	0.7%	70%
AA 691 American Flight history →	PHX 19:44	AUS 23:57	31%	10%	1.0%	71%
WN 3208 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 17:25	AUS 21:40	38%	14%	0.7%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON