Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3235 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3235 PHX 05:10 → BNA 10:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4600 PHX 15:20 → BNA 20:40 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3235 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:10	BNA 10:25	5%	1%	0.5%	88%
WN 719 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:50	BNA 13:10	12%	2%	0.5%	83%
AA 3073 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	BNA 14:02	16%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 3237 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:45	BNA 18:00	27%	6%	0.5%	64%
AA 1370 American Flight history →	PHX 16:31	BNA 21:59	30%	9%	0.7%	67%
WN 4600 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:20	BNA 20:40	34%	9%	0.5%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON