Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4601 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 4601 PHX 08:40 → BOI 11:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 2554 PHX 22:45 → BOI 01:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4601 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:40	BOI 11:45	9%	1%	0.5%	94%
AA 4948 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:10	BOI 13:27	11%	5%	0.5%	93%
AA 4934 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:35	BOI 16:50	13%	6%	0.5%	85%
AA 6332 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 19:31	BOI 22:46	17%	7%	0.7%	70%
AS 3096 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:56	BOI 20:10	18%	7%	0.6%	84%
WN 2554 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	BOI 01:50	32%	9%	1.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON