Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1564 PHX 08:42 → BOS 16:55 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 567 PHX 15:15 → BOS 23:14 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1564 American Flight history →	PHX 08:42	BOS 16:55	16%	6%	0.6%	81%
AA 2701 American Flight history →	PHX 21:45	BOS 05:45	19%	7%	1.1%	87%
DL 1697 Delta Flight history →	PHX 22:32	BOS 06:30	19%	7%	1.0%	86%
AA 366 American Flight history →	PHX 13:00	BOS 21:00	24%	11%	0.7%	65%
AA 567 American Flight history →	PHX 15:15	BOS 23:14	25%	10%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	48m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	6h 44m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171	7h 09m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558	7h 05m	95%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON