Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4245 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 4245 PHX 07:05 → BUR 08:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 4667 PHX 18:10 → BUR 19:30 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4245 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:05	BUR 08:30	5%	1%	0.8%	100%
WN 3243 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:15	BUR 09:40	9%	2%	0.8%	92%
AA 3992 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:17	BUR 08:45	11%	3%	1.0%	89%
WN 1100 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:50	BUR 11:15	14%	3%	0.8%	92%
WN 1493 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:45	BUR 14:05	20%	5%	0.8%	84%
AA 6415 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 14:43	BUR 16:12	21%	11%	0.7%	84%
AA 4944 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:37	BUR 18:07	26%	12%	0.8%	80%
WN 1680 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:10	BUR 15:30	31%	8%	0.8%	81%worse than usual
WN 3248 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 20:25	BUR 21:50	42%	16%	0.8%	43%
WN 4667 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:10	BUR 19:30	44%	14%	0.8%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON