Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1039 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:30	BWI 16:55	22%	3%	0.6%	68%
WN 4347 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:25	BWI 23:50	39%	12%	0.6%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 18:54 → LAX 20:31UA 4722 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 23:05 → BWI 07:14 +1UA 1605	9h 20m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	PHX 05:10 → BNA 10:25WN 3235	1h 40m Nashville	BNA 12:05 → BWI 14:55WN 1345	6h 45m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	PHX 05:00 → MDW 10:20WN 2723	1h 35m Chicago	MDW 11:55 → BWI 14:45WN 2744	6h 45m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	2h 17m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	7h 41m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	8h 30m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	PHX 05:00 → STL 09:50WN 3352	1h 10m St Louis	STL 11:00 → BWI 14:05WN 4614	6h 05m	97%	84%
American Details →	PHX 07:00 → ORD 12:51AA 2765	3h 38m Chicago	ORD 16:29 → BWI 19:42AA 4717 · flown by Republic	9h 42m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	PHX 05:30 → AUS 09:45WN 4548	1h 30m Austin	AUS 11:15 → BWI 15:30WN 267	7h 00m	97%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHX 19:47 → SFO 21:50UA 2837	50m San Francisco	SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:09 +1UA 1340	8h 22m	61%	52%
Southwest Details →	PHX 11:00 → DEN 13:45WN 3262	50m Denver	DEN 14:35 → BWI 20:00WN 1045	6h 00m	66%	46%
Southwest Details →	PHX 15:25 → DEN 18:10WN 3265	55m Denver	DEN 19:05 → BWI 00:35 +1WN 1500	6h 10m	56%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON