tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:20, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 6416 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 08:55 BZN 12:40 16% 5% 0.6% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 4h 17m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 13:17 → BZN 14:47DL 2946 7h 02m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 13:50 → BZN 15:13DL 3906 · flown by SkyWest 4h 28m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:32 → BZN 13:20UA 1248 6h 20m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738 3h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 18m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 06:15 → DEN 09:00WN 1706 3h 30m Denver DEN 12:30 → BZN 14:10WN 4219 6h 55m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 3h 15m Denver DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:20 → SLC 15:58DL 1431 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 4h 24m 92% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 13:35 → DFW 18:12AA 1079 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:09 → BZN 21:14AA 1774 6h 39m 72% 54%
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:51 → SFO 10:54UA 2449 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562 5h 30m 68% 48%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 10:05 → SAN 11:20WN 3322 50m San Diego SAN 12:10 → BZN 15:55WN 1133 4h 50m 59% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON