tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4081 at 08:39 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4081 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 08:39 CID 13:58 12% 2% 0.7% 89%
AA 4982 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 18:51 CID 23:59 31% 8% 1.0% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148 3h 35m Chicago ORD 10:00 → CID 11:19AA 3455 · flown by Envoy 8h 29m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 28m Denver DEN 11:20 → CID 14:15UA 476 6h 15m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:28 → CID 17:33AA 3461 · flown by Envoy 8h 03m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:30 → ORD 14:21AA 319 2h 38m Chicago ORD 16:59 → CID 18:20AA 3458 · flown by Envoy 7h 50m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → PHX 13:35 → DFW 18:12AA 1079 2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:11 → CID 23:20AA 3798 · flown by Envoy 7h 45m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:19 → DFW 16:55AA 1648 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → CID 22:03AA 4291 · flown by Envoy 7h 44m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 20:56 → CID 22:03DL 2626 9h 49m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 55m Denver DEN 13:55 → CID 17:01UA 5677 · flown by SkyWest 5h 53m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:15 → ORD 16:12AA 2252 47m Chicago ORD 16:59 → CID 18:20AA 3458 · flown by Envoy 6h 05m 69% 57%
AmericanDetails → PHX 15:28 → ORD 21:30AA 2786 1h 05m Chicago ORD 22:35 → CID 23:49AA 3326 6h 21m 74% 54%
UnitedDetails → PHX 14:45 → ORD 20:27UA 1686 53m Chicago ORD 21:20 → CID 22:42UA 1923 5h 57m 69% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON