Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 22–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3887 PHX 09:10 → CLE 16:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 3111 PHX 15:40 → CLE 22:42 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3887 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:10	CLE 16:05	22%	3%	0.5%	81%
F9 2698 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 12:32	CLE 19:37	23%	9%	0.8%	79%
AA 3111 American Flight history →	PHX 15:40	CLE 22:42	25%	10%	0.6%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	48m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619	5h 36m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047	54m Minneapolis	MSP 15:39 → CLE 18:31DL 1449	5h 49m	85%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON