Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3009 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 3009 PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1211 PHX 14:03 → CLT 21:18 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3009 American Flight history →	PHX 05:00	CLT 12:09	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 1274 American Flight history →	PHX 06:20	CLT 13:35	8%	2%	0.6%	96%
AA 1678 American Flight history →	PHX 10:06	CLT 17:30	16%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 1688 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	CLT 15:48	16%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 849 American Flight history →	PHX 23:35	CLT 06:35	16%	4%	1.2%	81%
AA 2923 American Flight history →	PHX 12:15	CLT 19:29	18%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 1330 American Flight history →	PHX 22:48	CLT 05:43	18%	4%	1.1%	79%
AA 1211 American Flight history →	PHX 14:03	CLT 21:18	20%	6%	0.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON