Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Hebron on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1954 American Flight history →	PHX 09:56	CVG 16:37	20%	4%	0.6%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	6h 03m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	PHX 05:00 → MDW 10:20WN 2723	2h 40m Chicago	MDW 13:00 → CVG 15:10WN 1247	7h 10m	100%	85%
American Details →	PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338	3h 52m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → CVG 00:30 +1AA 4776 · flown by Republic	9h 15m	98%	85%
American Details →	PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818	1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:05 → CVG 10:25AA 1713	6h 49m	96%	84%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	48m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:28UA 1978	5h 28m	94%	84%
United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	1h 33m Houston	IAH 12:25 → CVG 15:57UA 2364	6h 47m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → CVG 15:39DL 3113	5h 54m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	3h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	8h 23m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHX 14:45 → ORD 20:27UA 1686	53m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → CVG 23:52UA 2148	6h 07m	69%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON