Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1357 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1357 PHX 05:05 → DAL 09:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 193 PHX 19:05 → DAL 23:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1357 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:05	DAL 09:25	3%	1%	0.7%	100%
WN 3254 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:10	DAL 11:35	6%	1%	0.7%	86%
WN 875 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:00	DAL 12:25	9%	2%	0.7%	93%
WN 3255 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:55	DAL 15:20	17%	4%	0.7%	74%
WN 3256 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:25	DAL 17:50	24%	7%	0.7%	67%
WN 1937 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:50	DAL 19:15	28%	7%	0.7%	62%
WN 1347 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 17:50	DAL 22:15	31%	12%	0.7%	39%
WN 193 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:05	DAL 23:30	35%	11%	0.8%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON