Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1542 at 23:52 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1542 PHX 23:52 → DCA 07:14 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1092 PHX 12:36 → DCA 19:59 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1542 American Flight history →	PHX 23:52	DCA 07:14	16%	5%	1.4%	89%
AA 3191 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	DCA 15:59	17%	5%	0.6%	85%
AA 1092 American Flight history →	PHX 12:36	DCA 19:59	27%	9%	0.7%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHX 06:25 → MDW 11:40WN 3295	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → DCA 15:35WN 2761	6h 10m	97%	78%
Southwest Details →	PHX 05:00 → MDW 10:20WN 2723	55m Chicago	MDW 11:15 → DCA 14:00WN 1294	6h 00m	94%	73%
Southwest Details →	PHX 05:10 → BNA 10:25WN 3235	50m Nashville	BNA 11:15 → DCA 14:00WN 4562	5h 50m	78%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON