Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1706 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 1706 PHX 06:15 → DEN 09:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 3266 PHX 18:40 → DEN 21:25 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 24% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1706 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 06:15	DEN 09:00	4%	1%	0.6%	92%
UA 337 United Flight history →	PHX 06:00	DEN 08:52	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 116 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:05	DEN 09:50	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
F9 1376 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 06:40	DEN 09:39	11%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 597 United Flight history →	PHX 09:08	DEN 12:00	12%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 1757 American Flight history →	PHX 08:32	DEN 11:27	13%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 3261 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:45	DEN 11:30	14%	3%	0.6%	80%
WN 3262 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:00	DEN 13:45	17%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 681 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:25	DEN 14:10	20%	4%	0.6%	69%
F9 4768 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 08:40	DEN 11:38	20%	6%	0.7%	85%
UA 1745 United Flight history →	PHX 18:59	DEN 21:54	20%	7%	0.6%	77%
UA 1615 United Flight history →	PHX 13:31	DEN 16:27	20%	7%	0.5%	75%
UA 624 United Flight history →	PHX 16:25	DEN 19:21	22%	8%	0.6%	76%
AA 3255 American Flight history →	PHX 21:45	DEN 00:37	26%	8%	1.3%	63%
WN 3264 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:45	DEN 16:35	28%	7%	0.6%	61%
AA 1638 American Flight history →	PHX 15:24	DEN 18:16	30%	8%	0.6%	70%
WN 3267 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:30	DEN 22:25	34%	10%	0.6%	50%
WN 3233 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 20:20	DEN 23:10	35%	10%	0.7%	45%
WN 4758 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 17:10	DEN 20:00	36%	10%	0.6%	24%
F9 1820 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 18:53	DEN 21:49	36%	11%	0.8%	75%worse than usual
WN 3265 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:25	DEN 18:10	39%	8%	0.6%	35%
F9 2142 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:48	DEN 19:46	40%	11%	0.7%	71%worse than usual
WN 3266 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:40	DEN 21:25	43%	10%	0.6%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON