Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1655 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1655 PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3972 PHX 16:39 → DFW 21:18 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1655 American Flight history →	PHX 05:10	DFW 09:45	7%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 1018 American Flight history →	PHX 06:10	DFW 10:42	7%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 1818 American Flight history →	PHX 00:36	DFW 05:09	11%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 1139 American Flight history →	PHX 07:30	DFW 12:06	13%	4%	0.8%	93%
F9 2532 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 06:24	DFW 10:59	13%	6%	0.8%	83%
AA 2719 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	DFW 13:05	15%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 554 American Flight history →	PHX 09:30	DFW 14:08	17%	5%	0.8%	87%
AA 3284 American Flight history →	PHX 10:31	DFW 15:10	19%	6%	0.8%	88%
AA 1648 American Flight history →	PHX 12:19	DFW 16:55	23%	7%	0.8%	74%
AA 1079 American Flight history →	PHX 13:35	DFW 18:12	26%	9%	0.8%	73%
AA 1663 American Flight history →	PHX 16:15	DFW 20:53	26%	11%	0.9%	65%
AA 3232 American Flight history →	PHX 17:15	DFW 21:50	27%	10%	1.0%	59%
AA 2113 American Flight history →	PHX 15:15	DFW 19:53	27%	10%	0.9%	54%
AA 2603 American Flight history →	PHX 20:21	DFW 00:48	27%	10%	1.4%	61%
AA 633 American Flight history →	PHX 19:00	DFW 23:25	30%	11%	1.2%	60%
F9 3972 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:39	DFW 21:18	33%	16%	1.0%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON