tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2516 at 08:44 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2516 American Flight history → PHX 08:44 DSM 13:45 15% 4% 0.7% 81%
AA 568 American Flight history → PHX 18:50 DSM 23:48 34% 11% 1.0% 55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:11 → DSM 09:11AA 3495 · flown by Envoy 6h 35m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 06:15 → DEN 09:00WN 1706 1h 00m Denver DEN 10:00 → DSM 12:50WN 1524 4h 35m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 58m Denver DEN 09:50 → DSM 12:47UA 5211 · flown by SkyWest 4h 47m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:15 → LAX 08:49AA 1668 3h 51m Los Angeles LAX 12:40 → DSM 18:20AA 4971 · flown by SkyWest 9h 05m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 8h 37m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 1h 03m Houston IAH 11:55 → DSM 14:10UA 6166 · flown by Mesa 6h 00m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373 3h 09m Houston IAH 20:12 → DSM 22:35UA 1780 8h 15m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 3h 50m Minneapolis MSP 15:40 → DSM 16:54DL 4913 · flown by Endeavor 8h 09m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 15:28 → ORD 21:30AA 2786 1h 01m Chicago ORD 22:31 → DSM 00:01 +1AA 4442 · flown by Republic 6h 33m 71% 60%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 15:25 → DEN 18:10WN 3265 1h 25m Denver DEN 19:35 → DSM 22:25WN 2940 5h 00m 73% 46%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 15:55 → MDW 21:15WN 4085 50m Chicago MDW 22:05 → DSM 23:35WN 4279 5h 40m 50% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON