Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3889 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 3889 PHX 07:50 → ELP 10:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 662 PHX 22:45 → ELP 00:55 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3889 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:50	ELP 10:05	7%	2%	0.6%	97%
AA 4978 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:44	ELP 11:17	12%	6%	0.6%	82%
AA 3874 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 21:45	ELP 23:59	30%	8%	1.4%	81%worse than usual
AA 2423 American Flight history →	PHX 16:10	ELP 18:25	31%	11%	0.7%	65%
WN 1795 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:25	ELP 17:40	37%	11%	0.6%	47%
WN 4551 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:45	ELP 21:00	45%	16%	0.6%	23%
WN 662 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	ELP 00:55	47%	14%	0.9%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON