tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4114 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 10:21 EUG 13:06 13% 3% 0.6% 90%
AA 4028 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 20:40 EUG 23:17 16% 5% 0.8% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → EUG 11:48DL 4135 · flown by SkyWest 5h 48m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → EUG 23:55DL 3721 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 98% 89%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 16:00 → SEA 19:06AS 289 3h 43m Seattle SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon 7h 59m 98% 88%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 07:00 → PDX 09:43AS 511 1h 16m Portland PDX 10:59 → EUG 11:57AS 3063 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 3h 33m Seattle SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest 7h 57m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374 3h 14m Seattle SEA 15:44 → EUG 17:05DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest 7h 46m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318 6h 57m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → PHX 17:10 → DEN 20:00WN 4758 55m Denver DEN 20:55 → EUG 22:45WN 3821 5h 35m 62% 48%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 13:35 → SAN 14:45WN 897 1h 00m San Diego SAN 15:45 → EUG 18:05WN 1771 4h 30m 62% 42%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 18:53 → SEA 22:00AS 611 49m Seattle SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon 5h 06m 43% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON