Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1992 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1992 PHX 06:00 → EWR 13:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 1967 PHX 16:10 → EWR 23:59 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1992 United Flight history →	PHX 06:00	EWR 13:47	5%	2%	0.7%	97%
UA 2078 United Flight history →	PHX 23:57	EWR 07:41	17%	5%	1.1%	86%
UA 2677 United Flight history →	PHX 09:48	EWR 17:39	23%	6%	0.7%	80%
AA 2156 American Flight history →	PHX 22:14	EWR 06:00	25%	8%	2.1%	83%
AA 1997 American Flight history →	PHX 09:20	EWR 17:20	27%	8%	0.9%	64%
UA 1190 United Flight history →	PHX 11:40	EWR 19:35	29%	9%	0.7%	67%
AA 1967 American Flight history →	PHX 16:10	EWR 23:59	32%	11%	1.0%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 10m Denver	DEN 10:02 → EWR 16:00UA 1423	7h 00m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	1h 22m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	6h 54m	97%	76%
United Details →	PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 13:30 → EWR 16:55UA 2759	7h 05m	94%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON