Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1831 at 10:21 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1831 PHX 10:21 → FAT 12:01 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3174 PHX 21:32 → FAT 23:08 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1831 American Flight history →	PHX 10:21	FAT 12:01	17%	5%	0.7%	90%
AA 6317 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 17:29	FAT 19:12	20%	11%	0.6%	77%
AA 4968 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 14:26	FAT 16:07	20%	11%	0.6%	72%
AA 3174 American Flight history →	PHX 21:32	FAT 23:08	32%	14%	1.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON