Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Kalispell on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3852 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 09:44	FCA 13:49	12%	3%	0.8%	100%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kalispell on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kalispell is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	2h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → FCA 12:43DL 3804 · flown by SkyWest	5h 43m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447	3h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:40 → FCA 17:29DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	100%	89%
Alaska Details →	PHX 07:00 → PDX 09:43AS 511	1h 23m Portland	PDX 11:06 → FCA 13:30AS 2044 · flown by Horizon	5h 30m	97%	88%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 23m Denver	DEN 11:15 → FCA 13:30UA 1547	6h 30m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:10 → FCA 22:53DL 1464	4h 48m	95%	79%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 53m Denver	DEN 13:53 → FCA 16:11UA 2246	6h 03m	97%	79%
American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:24 → FCA 14:57AA 1842	8h 47m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	2h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → FCA 23:43DL 1602	8h 52m	95%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHX 08:51 → SFO 10:54UA 2449	1h 06m San Francisco	SFO 12:00 → FCA 15:30UA 5577 · flown by SkyWest	5h 39m	68%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON